Swish Tribune Analyst, Ryan Lashin, Gives An In Depth Analysis On The Top 50 Wide Receivers

Chase is unfortunately coming off an injury riddled season, which hampered his fantasy production. The crazy thing is that despite missing 4 games and not really playing in the season finale, he still finished as the wide receiver 12. However, possibly most intriguing is the fact that Chase was third in red zone targets with 24, rivaling Jefferson’s 28, despite missing those games. This shows his ability to generate fantasy points through touchdowns as well as yards. Despite having competition with a talented Bengals receiving group, he still commanded a dominant near 30% target share. His youth also primes him for a breakout season and possible wide receiver #1 finish. I recommend taking him, if possible, within the first few picks of the draft. As long as he stays healthy, he is a sure fire #1 wide receiver.

Kupp had his season cut short by injury, which is concerning given his age. However, Kupp is still in a position to generate wide receiver #1 fantasy production. Both Kupp and Stafford missed 8 games and in those games, Kupp controlled over 33% of those targets. Despite Kupp missing 8 games, he still finished the season with 20% of the team’s total targets, once more, despite not being activated for the final 8 weeks! With a depleted Rams roster, there is no competition, and he will certainly be provided with the opportunity to shine. However, with the Rams offense set to struggle, it is a concern of whether the Rams will be able to sustain touchdown drives to get Kupp those touchdown points. In a PPR league though, he appears to be an incredibly consistent option and sure fire #1 wide receiver, but should probably be drafted in the early to mid first round after guys like Jefferson and Chase. I see no upside in taking him over either of those guys and maybe even Hill in terms of upside.

Hill, given the right circumstances, could have reached his goal of a 2,000 yard season. He continued to put up numbers even with the likes of Skylar Thompson passing him the ball. Despite Waddle’s presence, he still commanded a 5th of the targets throughout the season, averaging over 7 per game. Not only that, but he is unsurprisingly, one of the deepest route runners, giving him big play potential. He and Tua have built up great chemistry, which was on display early in the season and is once again at training camp. With Hill more determined than ever to reach 2,000 yards in a season and the Dolphins looking like serious contenders who can support Hill, it is not out of the question for him to explode and finish as the #1 wide receiver overall or even #1 fantasy player overall. However, this is merely a stark possibility, and you should proceed with caution taking him early in the first, as his ADP will likely allow you to draft him at earliest pick 7, which is good value if you are planning to take a wide receiver with your first pick.

Now Brown might be a surprising candidate to be a top 5 wide receiver, but I am here to tell you that’s ridiculous. Brown is one of the deepest route runners, providing him with likely the biggest play potential out of all wide receivers, amongst the likes of Hill, Metcalf, and Waddle. Looking at his efficiency as a wide receiver given his opportunities, he clearly fits the bill, recording top 4 yardage without crossing the 90 reception threshold. Reports from training camp are that Brown and Hurts have been spending a lot of time together improving their chemistry, and with that we can expect even more growth and passing expansion from the Eagles. Prior to this, Brown still had a commanding 29% target share (top 5 last season). VERY IMPORTANT: I am not telling you to draft Brown at this position among the likes of Kupp and Chase. However, with his current round 2 ADP and upside to finish as a top 3 wide receiver this season, having him as your wide receiver #1 after taking a running back in the first, will surely set you up for success and put you a step ahead of your fellow leaguemates.

Devante Adams finished second in targets last year, being the only other receiver to reach 180 targets. He finished as the wide receiver 2 and produced consistently strong showings up until the last couple of weeks when the Raider’s season was almost certainly over. So why is he no longer a top 2 option? Well, for starters Chase and Kupp would have most certainly outpaced him, pushing him to the receiver 4 spot. However, Adams lost Carr, and the reason why he was targeted so much was because of their chemistry. This isn’t a reason to panic and not draft Adams, but you should be weary of Jimmy Garrapolo’s ability to support a #1 wide receiver in the same way. Adams is a player I am trying to avoid in my drafts, but still feels like a safe option. I would not draft him at his current ADP, but as a second round pick, he is a steal, with the upside of a potential top 5 wide receiver finish given that Jimmy G steps up to the plate. As we gain more information from training camp on their chemistry, this ranking will likely fluctuate accordingly.

Diggs feels like a very safe option. I have drafted Diggs in my leagues practically every year that he has been on the Bills. He receives a high target share at 28%, and receives a large share of the Bills’ red zone targets. He has been in this Bill's system for a while now and has consistently been a top 10 fantasy option. I see no reason why this would change in the upcoming season. However, while he checks out statistically, I do not see a very high ceiling for Diggs in terms of growth, so he will likely not be the boom player who wins you your fantasy league. However, as a mid to late first rounder, he is one of the most consistent options there is and especially at that value. I just prefer a few of the other options at that ADP, and he doesn’t have me excited.

Lamb is a player who I am very high on, but maybe not at his current ADP of 12- 14. Lamb finished last season with 156 targets (5th most) and apart from Gallup’s return, I expect him to maintain a high target share. Reports from training camp are that the Cowboys are looking like a more pass heavy offense from last year (I would still buy into Pollard), meaning that Lamb might see even more opportunity for growth. He has a lot of room to grow as last year he was only targeted 12 times in the red zone, yet scored 10 touchdowns, showing his ability to capitalize on the opportunities given to him. Lamb is a higher upside pick than Amon Ra, but maybe should be avoided in the first round as there are better options.

Amon Ra had a breakout season last year, which was foreshadowed by his fantasy performance in the waning games of the 2021 season. He is predicted for yet another strong finish as possibly a top 5 receiver. One thing I will say is that he is very target dependent. In both seasons he has only averaged 10 yards per route run with just an average of 6 yards before the catch, making him the true slant man (sorry Michael Thomas). My point is that he only had one play over 40 yards last season, showing that he is not a big play guy. With his high amount of red zone targets, I was concerned that David Montgomery would take some of his touchdowns with his projected goal line carries. However, he finished 10th in yards but 9th in fantasy points, so he is not reliant on touchdowns for his production. In standard leagues, he is maybe not the guy to pick at his current ADP, but in standard leagues, I would say that he makes sense to pick at his current ADP, and has upside if you want to reach for him.

Chris Olave is one of my favorite picks this year because of how off the charts he has been statistically. He is just waiting to be a fantasy winner, and was denied that last year with Andy Dalton. Derek Carr has shown that he can support a wide receiver #1 as shown with Devante Adams. It is slightly concerning that Michael Thomas will be back, as when there he has a higher target share. However, Olave will still make the big plays and did boast a 25% target share last year. Just to show how badly Andy Dalton hurt Olave in fantasy, Olave was targeted a very strong 120 times, but only 78 of those were even deemed catchable! (He caught 72 of them). When given the opportunity, he shines as he averages a very strong 12 yards before the catch on every route. He has the big play potential of the likes of Tyreek and AJ. He had the lowest receptions of any player who got to 1,000 yards on the season, showing just how much room he has to grow. With Kamara out for a few games, the passing game will surely see an expansion, which I believe will remain even after Kamara’s return, given it is successful. The cherry on top is that the reports of his and Carr’s connection have been strong in training camp. I am buying into this Saints offense this year and potentially the stack of Thomas and Olave. Better yet, there are 4 receivers with higher ADPs who are lower on my list. He is falling to the fourth round in many leagues, and in my opinion is a must draft in the 4th and good pick in the 3rd if you went running back heavy early on.

Waddle is an extremely talented wide receiver and high upside fantasy option. The biggest limitation to his production is the competition with Tyreek Hill. However, last year Waddle still managed to maintain a 20.8% target share. In each of the past 5 years, there has been a wide receiver who finished in the top 10 with a smaller target share, so why can’t waddle be that guy again? He averages the second most yards before the catch per route run (behind George Pickens) and the most yards per route among high scoring wide receivers, making him one of the biggest play threats. He also plays in the most ideal situation with a top 10 upside quarterback and a pass heavy offense. Being such a big play threat gives him the upside to have those once in a while gems that can straight up carry you to wins. He scored over 20 points in 4 of his games, and I assure you that nothing will feel better than when he drops a 40 bomb in your championship game. I see no reason for a regression, and he is draftable at his current ADP, especially in PPR leagues.

You may think that I have Wilson too low on this list, and I might agree with you. Wilson has the potential to make me rue the day I slept on him and his top 5 fantasy upside. In games where Zach Wilson did not play, he averaged over 17 points per game vs half that in games where he did. Even crazier, according to a tweet by the OGfantasyfootball, Wilson’s 147 targets was the most a rookie has ever gotten since 2003 and the second most ever! Now, he just got a massive quarterback upgrade who he has shown great chemistry with and trains everyday amongst a great secondary. I see no reason to sleep on Garrett Wilson, and as the reports keep getting more and more positive, he will continue to rise in my rankings. In short, draft him!

This may look like the biggest reach on my list, but Moore could be one of the biggest breakout fantasy players. Did you know that Moore has finished as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver breakout fantasy players. Did you know that Moore has finished as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver in each of the last 4 years. Last year, he did drop out of the top 20 in the final week, but I see absolutely no way that happens again. Moore not only dealt with injury last year, but had abysmal quarterback play. Honestly, I felt bad for Moore, which is why I am happy he just received a massive upgrade. I don’t even like Fields and he is a massive upgrade. One of the biggest training camp talks has been the chemistry between the two. I see it on the news everyday. Moore is one of the most underrated players and now will show what he’s got, playing in a division with average secondaries and a guaranteed increase in targets. You can even get him in the 5th round for a possible top 10 wide receiver. Now that is upside! If he falls into the 6th, he should definitely be your pick, and maybe even a 5th round pick given you reached for a quarterback.

Don’t sleep on Cooper. Even in a run heavy offense, Cooper always receives his due share of targets, with a 27% target share. He finished as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver last season with Jacoby Brisset throwing him the ball. Cooper has finished as a top 15 receiver in 3 of the last 4 years, and with Watson looking more like himself, he just got one of the best quarterback situations of his career. There have been reports from camp that their chemistry is improving and that Cooper is a team leader. I will say that Cooper rarely falls from his ADP, which comes with a hefty price tag (pick 43). In the 4th round, Olave might fall to me or I might reach for upside with Moore and Ridley, or even take a quarterback. All I am saying is that the middle rounds are the time to gamble on league winning wide receivers, and Cooper isn’t that. He is safe and reliable and will cost you your 4th round pick. Your choice.

Ridley certainly isn’t the safest pick, but he has a lot of upside. I may be slightly biased because of how Ridley burned me during the 2021 season, but I do believe that he has top 10 upside. Lawrence is a great fantasy quarterback as he throws the ball a lot and deep, giving big play potential. Ridley has looked like he hasn’t missed a beat during training camp. But, you cannot make your fantasy decisions off of 1 viral video. Ridley is an alpha wide receiver who will get targets as the receiver #1 on the team, no questions asked. I do have a gut worry about injury though. It just feels risky, but a risk that can win you your league. Don’t take him in the 3rd, but you can in the 4th. Hopefully fortune favors the bold.

Smith is hoping for a breakout season. Unfortunately, he is not the team’s primary wide receiver, nor does he run deeper routes, which makes it very difficult when he plays on a run-heavy team. The team will likely be less run heavy this year, however. Having less yards per route may be more favorable for Smith as he had more receptions than Brown despite having less targets (many of Brown’s targets were not catchable. Sorry Jalen Hurts). He still had a 26% target share, got over 130 targets, and finished the week with 4 consecutive strong showings. Smith certainly isn’t my favorite pick, but he has a lot of upside. His ADP is the problem at 27. He is not that much better than receivers going behind him such as Cooper, and doesn’t have more upside than Olave and Ridley. So I do not see why you would take him in the early 3rd round. His ADP value is way too high, but he will likely finish as a top 15 option.

Metcalf finished as the wide receiver 16 last year, and not much has changed in his situation. Geno will still be his QB with the difference being that JSN will take some targets and also that he has a really easy strength of schedule. With the Cardinals and Rams declining rapidly for this season, he will get much more favorable matchups to make up for whatever regression Geno Smith has or whatever decrease in targets happens from JSN. I think he is a safe pick who will be mostly stagnant in his growth, so he isn’t a boom candidate to win your league. But his ADP of 33 is solid, and he is a good 4th round pick if you need a wide receiver. Personally, I would wait until the 5th for guys like Moore, or take Olave or Ridley in the early 4th if possible. I might even take Amari Cooper over him He is still a good option though.

Terry Mclaurin has constantly disappointed me, because I know what he is capable of. McLaurin is one of the best there is once you give him the chance. Just give this man a quarterback. He was targeted a mere 120 times, and only 80 of those passes were deemed catchable. He caught 77 of them. 1⁄3 of his targets were not even catchable and he still finished as a top 15 wide receiver. In his one game with Howell, his target share increased drastically, and during training camp it looks like he is his #1 target. Doubt me if you want, but I actually like Howell and think he can be a very reasonable starter. Maybe I’m just a sucker for Terry Mclaurin like I am every year because I want to believe that talent correlates to fantasy production, but that just isn’t true. Realistically, his ADP of 50 is a good deal, but this may be your QB round or there are just better options like DJ Moore, Cooper, and definitely Ridley if he falls. Oh, forgot to mention he has one of the hardest wide receiver strength of schedules: just add that on.

This may seem like a reach, and you should definitely not draft him until a later round like 7 the earliest. However, I believe in Michael Thomas. He may be slant man, but he is damn good at it. Reports from camp are that he is playing like a man with a chip on his shoulder, and I just feel good about players who are really motivated. My concern is that I also like Olave, and Carr may not be able to support two #1 wide receivers. Michael Thomas may have only played in 3 games, but he finished the season as top 7 in average points per game with over 17 in PPR. He also averages 8 targets per game with one of those being a touchdown chance every game. He has never really given a reason to doubt that he is productive when he plays, but the keyword is “when he plays. Seeing his motivation and full recovery makes me think there is no reason to assume he will get hurt. Getting a player who plays like a #1 or at worst #2 wide receiver at 7+ round value is absurd! I am drafting this man in every single fantasy league that I can. The problem is that people are also on to this, and reach for him on the 6th, which I might not risk reaching for.

Besides injury, the reason for Samuel’s heavy fall is his stats during splits with and without McCaffery. McCaffery takes away Samuel’s role as a rusher, and it shows through the insanely large drop in production when McCaffery is on the field. My logic in still having him as a top 20 wide receiver is that these are professional football organizations who know Samuel’s worth to the team, and as a result, will change his role to accommodate the team and his production. His rushing upside is what made him so dangerous, so Samuel is probably a player to avoid. He still has a strong target share, and I do think he will finish over Ayuk, who is a sleeper in the later rounds. At his ADP of 38, he is not a good pick. There are so many better value guys, so you are better off taking Ayuk for his upside in a later round.

I’m not going to lie, I always sleep on Tee. I am blind to his potential, so if you believe in him, then take him. I’ll tell you the facts. He is not going to be the #1 receiver on his team nor have the highest target share. His % of total targets was less than 20% despite Chase not even being there for an additional 2 games. This is not the share needed to support a wide receiver. I am just not going to take this guy over Devonta Smith (Who some how had a higher target share as a wr#2 in a run first offense), Ridley, or even Amari Cooper. The Bengals actually have a fairly easy strength of schedule for receivers, and Higgins is a talented and proven top 15 option, so he is a good pick, but just not at his current ADP.

I have Williams over Kennan Allen because of the upside. We have seen what Mike Williams can do. Consistency has been an issue though. A crazy stat; through the weeks until he got injured, he either scored at least 20 points or less than 10 and no in between. His consistency only improved after injury, and now in training camp he has been experimenting in the slot, which will get him many more receptions in PPR. He gets the big plays and also has consistent opportunities with red zone targets, to make up for a lackluster game. In terms of upside, he is still young and a great pick. His ADP of 64, wide receiver 25, makes him a steal, who is good value for the position.

London is primed for a breakout year. He had the 3rd highest target share of any player! 30% of targets went to London, which is a crazy amount as a rookie, showing that he is an alpha wide receiver. He had to deal with Mariota through the season, as only 80 of his 120 targets were even catchable. London gets a fair amount of red zone targets, which helps with consistent touchdown scores. His situation still isn’t great, but it is much better, and he is being drafted way way too low. His ADP of 68 is criminal. It should be theft to take him in the 6th round with wide receiver #1 upside.   

I have Allen lower than most, and that is because I think he might be a bust. He is older and more injury prone. I could be seriously wrong here, but my intuition is to fade Allen at his 45 ADP. There are guys who will definitely be there with more upside like Jerry Jeudy and DJ Moore. In his 11 seasons, he has only had a few full seasons, and with his age, injury is more likely than ever. The big reports from camp are that Allen is starting to play all over the field, and feels like he was trapped in the slot last year. This could go either way for fantasy. I said with Mike Williams that moving into the slot will get him more receptions and opportunities, so moving Allen out could be bad for him as he is leaving the role that made him such a good fantasy PPR option. However, he could become a big play guy and fantasy steal (Likely not). Fade him, especially at his current ADP, but if he drops to you: then why not.  

Jerry Jeudy is someone who everyone is hyped for. Remember last year when everyone was raving about Courtland Sutton. Well I am getting those same feelings with everyone hyping up Jeudy. Last season, Sutton had a larger target share. The reason why Jeudy finished higher in fantasy, was because Jeudy had more catchable balls! Despite getting more targets, Sutton is a deep ball receiver, and Russ was abysmal at throwing the deep ball. The training camp reports have been talking about Sutton more than Jeudy. Now, on the other hand, Jeudy averaged more fantasy points per game than Sutton, and definitely has more upside. At his current ADP of 55, he is a good pick. I have him higher than his ADP value, but Sutton is being taken over 50 picks behind him! Jeudy may not even be the #1 guy on his own team, and you can steal his teammate at least 4 rounds later. He’s a good option at his ADP, but don’t foam out the mouth, thinking you are drafting the new Cooper Kupp by reaching for him.

Let’s start with the good. He got 7 touchdowns last year on 13 red zone targets in 14 games. That looks really good for his touchdown production. Jordan Love is building a connection with him: great. Now, for the next part: don’t draft him. Christian Watson does not have that high of an ADP, but the more that people talk about him, the more he will rise and people will reach. Even if Watson gets a better target share than last year (which is necessary), we are forgetting about the big issue; Jordan Love just isn’t good. But you are right to point out that I didn’t fade Terry Mclaurin for the same reason. That is because Mclaurin is proven, has a high target share, and I like Howell way more. Watson was inconsistent, had a fair amount of drops, and simply wasn’t targeted. I don’t believe that Rodgers wouldn’t throw it to an open receiver, even if he didn’t like his rookie group last year. If Watson really was dominant, he would have had the ball thrown to him. The difference between running backs and receivers, is that running backs get opportunities while receivers make their own. Watson failed to do that. Don’t draft him any higher than he is.

Mike Evans is being slept on. He has never given a reason to doubt him, and while a decline is inevitable, it isn’t steep enough to warrant a below top 30 finish. He is not a 7th round wide receiver, but you should certainly take him by that pick. Godwin is being taken over him when this is Evans’ team. Evans gets all of the touchdowns and usually the big scoring games if you are feeling like you need a miracle score. This is a tricky situation because it varies so much between PPR and standard for this pair. Godwin gets more receptions, and will get more receptions. However, Evans has always and will end up with more yards and touchdowns. I trust Evans and his consistency more, and will take him over Godwin in PPR, but it is honestly a toss up for that formate, whereas for standard it is a no brainer win for Evans. By the way, even in PPR Evans outscored Godwin in the same amount of games.

I really like Brown as a sleeper. He may have only played in 12 games last season, but he actually was 8th in terms of average fantasy points per game through his first 7 weeks. Think about that. In PPR, he was on pace to be the wide receiver #8, and is being drafted as the wide receiver #34. However, through his final 5 games, he dropped to the wide receiver #28 in points per game. His situation is not the best. The Cardinals offense is on a steep decline, and it showed up until the last game as Brown’s points suffered. He will get a better target share than last year, and now we know his range. At his peak, he is top 10 (not likely sustainable), at his worst, he is wide receiver #30. Let’s factor in the situation a bit and call it closer to the latter. Draft him, and draft him at his current ADP for sure. Maybe even reach up a few picks if you have to, because he is a breakout candidate at cheap value, who has shown his ceiling and is being drafted at his floor. Without injury, this is a guaranteed value pick!

Easy and simple. Draft Zay Flowers. He is my most drafted player, and I am going to tell you why. OBJ may be the #1 in Baltimore, but he is just as new to this system, and in this system, Zay Flowers is a better fit. He is versatile, a good route runner, and good after the catch. The Ravens are going to run less, especially coming up with new plans as Dobbins is not practicing. I can see Flowers on screens, sweeps, slants, and more. He has been the talk of his training camp and maybe NFL training camp as a whole. I see no way in which he is not the highest scoring rookie fantasy receiver. He is being drafted with an ADP of 130: criminal. I am even reaching as high as a round or two before his ADP to make sure I get him, because he is being drafted as a bench player, when I know he will be a great receiver #3 with #2 receiver upside. I can’t wait to see how preseason progresses and move him on my board accordingly. 

Kirk was #12 last year and top 20 in average points per game. Leaving him out of the top 30 is wrong, even if Ridley is massive competition. Lawrence was seventh in attempts last year, so there is more volume than 25 other teams’ receivers have. We see teams like the Eagles support two receiver #1s, and they threw the ball drastically less times. The Jaguars got even better and will have more sustained drives: opportunities for Kirk. Will he be a top 15 wide receiver again? Probably not. But, that doesn’t negate his top 20 upside and connection with Lawrence that got him 23% of targets. You can draft him at the 75th pick, but if Drake London is still there, he is a better pick. I would take Kirk over Mike Evans though, who has a similar ADP. 

Pickens will likely be his team’s go to option, and has extreme upside. He will not be as good as everyone thinks, but he will still be pretty good and an upside #2 wide receiver. He is putting on a show at training camp, but I am going to ignore his one preseason week 1 play, because you shouldn’t base your draft off one play during training camp or game. I think he will get a good amount of targets, and he has the most yards before catch per reception of any high end fantasy receiver. He also gets red zone targets. Just increase his target share, and sky's the limit.

Many are taking him over Samuel after his better finish last season. Before we jump to conclusions, let’s present the facts. Samuel averaged more targets per game than Ayuk when he played. Samuel has potential for more yards as his average yards before catch per route was only 2.5 yards. Ayuk runs deeper routes, so he will get more consistent big plays, and definitely could be worth more than his ADP. I just believe that Samuel’s role will be revitalized in a manner that reduces Ayuk’s targets. His ADP makes sense, and you can draft him there. 

Sutton is being extremely undervalued, being drafted as the wide receiver #44 after guys such as JuJu and low ceiling rookies, and I find it hilarious. Sutton busted last season, and was short of his potential. This is a new offense, and no wide receiver #1 should be drafted as 44th. That’s right. Jeudy is not the receiver #1. Jeudy was targeted less last year and will be again. If you ignore the touchdown, in the first week of the preseason Jeudy and Sutton had the same amount of yards and Sutton had more volume. It doesn’t mean much, but it should still show that Sutton is looking viable. I am not saying to take him over Jeudy. Jeudy has more upside, and Payton likes him. He will have a bigger role than ever. However, Sutton does not deserve to fall this far when he is a guaranteed #3 receiver at worst, absolute worst. He has high wide receiver #2 upside, and should not be drafted as a bench player. Draft him a little before his ADP, and you will be a happy player this year.  

Hopkins is being drafted as the wide receiver #21, so why is he so low. Hopkins is a great player, and I don’t think that changes. However, his situation is atrocious. It is one of the worst ones I even see, although the Colts are worse. Hopkins was 16th in average points per game, and did so with David Blough and Colt McCoy for the majority of his games. So he has shown that he can succeed with poor QB play. I just somehow think this situation is even worse. I think Hopkins is due for regression, and while he has upside above the rankings where I put him, He is not a 5th round pick. This ADP is ridiculous, and you should not put a thought towards drafting him in that round or the following round. You can get DJ Moore, you can get Jerry Jeudy, and you can get Terry Mclaurin. Even take Drake London or Christian Kirk. Just do not draft Hopkins.

Godwin should be taken a little after Evans. They both have potential. They both have an awful situation, which is why he has dropped so far. It looks from camp like he will still get a lot of receptions, and that volume gives him potential. He can be a starting fantasy wide receiver, but I can also see him being a bust. He is being drafted at the 67th pick. He is not a 6th round receiver, but he may be a 7th round pick. At his current ADP, however, there are more upside options such as Drake London. Be careful drafting Godwin. I believe you got the gist of his statistics in the Evans review, so forgive me for this little less in depth review. Just don’t draft Godwins at his current ADP.

Dotson is a potential breakout candidate. He gets a very reasonable target share, runs big routes, and showed flashes last season. His situation is much better in my opinion, and I like his confidence. He was very inconsistent last year, but had a bunch of great games. He averaged more points per game than big names such as Godwin and Marquise Brown. I will say it again. I really like Sam Howell, and I believe that this Washington offense will be pass heavy and effective. Dotson scores touchdowns and runs deep routes. That upside at the 96th pick is worth it. I might still reach for Zay Flowers instead, but he is a very good pick at his current ADP.

Over a 3rd of his targets last season were uncatchable. However, he still has the same quarterback, so that probably won’t change much. What matters is what he did with that target share, and unfortunately he ended up with the same amount of yards with someone who had 30 less receptions and 10% less of the team s targets. I will take Pickens over Johnson every had 30 less receptions and 10% less of the teams targets. I will take Pickens over Johnson every time. Johnson has had the volume to show what he can do and breakout, and he did not impress me. He isn’t bad, but Pickens is better, and at his current ADP in the mid-70s, take Marquise Brown instead. At that point, I may even be willing to reach for Michael Thomas.

He is good, and we thought he might break out last year. However, he didn’t. His target share was high, but his yardage and yards per reception were ghastly low. His situation may be the absolute worst in my opinion. Anthony Richardson will struggle, and although Ehlinger looked well in preseason week 1, I do not trust him to support a fantasy wide receiver #1. I do not like him at his current ADP of 81, as low as that already is, because he is a bust. I am not drafting him unless he falls into the 9th-10th round. That won’t happen, so I will not be drafting him.

Lockett has always been an underrated player and under the radar fantasy option. He finished as the #13 receivers last year, so having him outside the top 30 sounds crazy. Unfortunately, I foresee a regression in the Seahawks offense next year, and JSN only reduces Lockett’s target share. Despite all of that, he should still be able to be in the top 25. These are my predictions, and I am going to take a risk in predicting that Lockett sustains an injury as is common with older receivers like Lockett. His ADP is very fair, and he is a good pick at that ADP.

He should probably not be a starting fantasy receiver for you, but as a bench player, he is great. He has massive games, and if you can predict them or just get lucky with an injury that gets him more targets, he will end up being a massive asset. He averages 17 yards per reception, which is great and in the highest percentile. You know his floor and we have seen what his ceiling can be. That ceiling will never be an every game thing as Diggs just takes too many targets. His target share just isn’t high enough to produce consistent wide receiver #1 points. His ADP of 110 is very good, but I am still taking Zay Flowers with this pick, maybe it will backfire or maybe I will look like a genius. If you want Davis, he has upside and has a reasonable ADP.  

Johnston is one of my favorite rookies. My second favorite in fact. I am very happy with the reports from training camp, and his preseason week 1 debut was solid. I really do not know how he fits into the Chargers scheme, and he could do well or he could not. He should not be drafted as a starting fantasy wide receiver. He should be drafted to your bench as a high upside candidate. His ADP of 117 makes that a pretty reasonable request. I would draft him. I think he is a solid pick, but as of right now, there isn’t much information to go on.  

He also is a rookie, who will unfortunately lose a lot of targets to Jefferson. However, Theilin is gone, which should make it easier for Addison. The Vikings are going to throw the ball more with Cook gone, so there is more opportunity for Addison. They drafted him high and that means something. They spent a lot on him, so they aren’t going to let him go to waste. As a Fantasy Football individual, I really like Addison as a potential breakout. Draft him to your bench once you have your starters, and a backup running back. If you already have your first backup receiver, such as Thomas or another proven guy, now it is time to draft your high upside rookies,

I think he has the potential to be a wide receiver #2. I like him at his ADP, but injury is a risk, and we don’t know how he will pan out. I prefer Zay Flowers, but Odell will likely be their go to: especially at the start. He was effective when he played on the Rams, and we saw what he can accomplish even at his age. His ADP is 103, so I will rather take Michael Thomas, but he is a good pick at that ADP.  

He just got a worse situation than last year. How that was possible, I do not know. His offensive line is bad, his quarterback is bad, his running back takes up all of the offensive opportunities, he now has Hopkins as competition, and in 11 games he had 33 receptions. The Titans went backwards, and Treylon Burks will not finish above Hopkins. However, I believe in giving second year receivers chances. They are the most likely breakout candidates. His ADP of 100 is ridiculous though. Don’t draft him over guys like Sutton or rookies like Flowers and Johnston. This is an obvious pass. 

I have him below other rookies because he has more competition. He will be playing in the slot, which should get him more opportunities for receptions: especially in the red be playing in the slot, which should get him more opportunities for receptions: especially in the red zone. For these reasons, he has a lot of upside. Once more, he isn’t my favorite rookie and his ADP of 95 is laughable. I can take Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, Zay Flowers, or any of the rookie wide receivers who I have higher. If he falls to me in a later round, then he is good value and you should take a shot on him. His current ADP is too rich, and you should keep that in mind. I have no facts for you, because he hasn’t played yet. He had 3 catches in preseason week 1, which is solid. He will be good, and I might trade for him. However, his ADP is too high.   

He is a reliable veteran guy. I think he will finish above Chark as the #1 for the Panthers, and will finish as the 45th wide receiver. I’m not jumping for joy with that, nor am I going to draft him as there are 12 teams, each with 3 starting receivers at most, and I don’t like drafting guys who I will predict to fall below being a competent starter. He will be solid, get receptions, and if you want to have a team’s best option, take him. However, Chark and Mingo have more upside for the team. He will likely be the team’s best, and I would probably draft him in one of the last rounds or on waiver.

We are at the stage where there are few #1 wide receivers left, and JuJu will be his team’s #1 option. He only had a 17% target share last year and was the receiver #37 while missing two games. His situation is better as he is a defined #1 and factoring out injury this year, he should be a little bit higher than his finish last year, hence his ranking.

This Bengals offense does have the potential to support 3 fantasy receivers. Last year, Boyd played every game and finished with the 28th spot, putting up fairly consistent stats. He had a 14% target share despite his competition and averaged over 13 yards per reception. He probably won’t be a high upside player, but he may be a consistent bench player who you can pick up off of waivers.

I know I already have 2 other Commanders receivers while not having starting wide receivers for teams like the Chiefs and Giants, but Samuel does a lot with a little and always has. When healthy, he seems to be a dark horse candidate. He either explodes or busts each week, but it does get him the numbers to be top 35. He has a better situation than last year, and you can keep him on the bench, and if you are down bad and need a miracle player, Samuel may be your savior.