Swish Tribune Analyst, Ryan Lashin, Gives An In Depth Analysis On The Top 2

Lamar Jackson is my favorite quarterback to draft this year, because his ADP is a round behind the first two quarterbacks, and he has showed us before that he has #1 player upside. Last year, he was actually the 6th starting QB in points per game. His situation is the most improved of any quarterback. He now has a very solid wide receiver group when last year he literally had nothing. Zay Flowers is electric and my favorite rookie wide receiver. Mark Andrews is still there and entering his prime (tight ends usually don’t enter their prime until much later than other positions). Bateman is ok, but hasn’t shown that he is a capable #1, but more importantly they now have Odell who, if healthy, certainly can have big plays to support Jackson. More important than the players, is the scheme. Lamar just got a new offensive coordinator who gives him control of his offense. He will be passing the ball much more, and his ADP hasn’t caught up to his volume increase. 

The only reason why Allen isn’t higher is because his situation isn’t really better than last year. Last year was the Bills hype year, and this year the Bills are just as good. However, Diggs’ relationship is fractured with Allen, and they didn’t really improve much offensively unless you think Dalton Kincaid is a miracle prospect. As we know, tight ends don’t typically explode and James Cook isn’t going to help as much as people think in the passing game. At the same time going to stop bashing him now, and tell you why he is #4. I think we have seen Allen’s ceiling for this year, but it is still a hell of a ceiling. He can easily be a top 3 quarterback, and he could have been QB #1 last year, if it hadn't been for his 2 point performance in week 17.  

Burrow has crazy upside. He hopefully won’t be hampered at the start of the season with his injury, but it shouldn’t be an issue. He has one of, if not the best, receiving groups. Mixon is playing smaller and smaller roles in the rushing game, as seen by his contract cut. Chase has upside to have one of the greatest seasons we have seen, and his upside has a direct relationship with Burrow’s. Burrow averaged 3 less points per game than Mahomes and Hurts, which is a slightly significant dropoff, but his strength of schedule is middle of the pack, and I feel like he is one of the safest options. If you can get him in the 4th round, then I would have no problem with that. 

Justin Fields may not be a good quarterback, but he certainly is a strong fantasy option. Last year, he averaged the 5th most points per game for quarterbacks, and his situation is much better than last year. DJ Moore is the best receiver that Fields has ever had. They will be passing more than ever with the loss of David Montgomery. Fields will be even better than before, and has more upside than other guys above him. All of these guys are elite, but I just think there are better options this year. I could be easily wrong though, and I still think he is an elite option. 

Herbert just got a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. I like this for his upside as it should expand the passing game, and pose a fresh start, and with rookie Quentin Johnston his ceiling is higher than ever. I don’t think he can surpass any of these top 5 guys, but he has a much lower ADP and has similar upside. He only averaged 17 points per game last year, but this is why you can buy him low, and watch him rebound to be that confident and safe top 10 option we know he can be. 

Lawrence broke out last year. Lawrence was a bit inconsistent at times, but he is a generational talent who just took a massive step in development, and it won’t stop there. The Jaguars offense just got major boosts, highlighted by Calin Ridley. Expect him to make a big jump this year. 

Watson struggled last year, but it was an understandable issue. He wasn’t allowed to participate, even practice, with the team, and people expected him to just come out there after a year and know the team and playbook like the back of his hand. We saw improvement in point production over the last couple of games, and the training camp rumors have said that the rust is off. The Browns’ offense is looking better than ever, and I think Watson is a great backup with high upside. 

Tagovailoa was top 10 in points per game last year. The concern is obviously his health, but in fantasy football you cannot bet on injury. As confident as the 12 year olds on the internet are that Tua is a walking injury, avoiding players on that when they are young is just stupid. His offense is one of the very best. That’s it. He might have been even higher in points per game when excluding the games when he got injured. We don’t need to talk about Tua as a QB, but as a fantasy option. But the two are related, and Tua is one of the best in yards per attempt and completion percentage. The Dolphins had a lot of goalline touchdowns, which leaves a lot of room for growth in touchdown volume. All of this is why I have him as my #10 option. 

Cousins doesn’t have much room for growth as Jefferson has likely shown his high ceiling, but he is still a fringe top 10 option, because he is consistent, safe, and Jefferson isn’t in a decline. Any decline he has barring injury, will likely be due to Jordan Addision, so Cousins won’t be affected. With Dalvin gone, they certainly won’t be running the ball more. ALl of which is why he is likely a top 10 option. 

Whether Dak’s hate is warranted or not, he is a solid fantasy option. I would be wary of the offensive coordinator change. I feel like they might run the ball more in their new offense. The Cowboys still have a strong offense, and Dak is their leader, and he is likely a consistent option at this spot. I don’t think he has the most upside as a pick however.

People are sleeping on Rodgers because of his age, but his connection with Garrett Wilson and career consistency gives me all the confidence I need to take him if you want a late round quarterback. His ADP is more than fair, and I don’t have much more to say. The Jets are on the rise, situation is everything, and I can’t find any issues with Rodgers. 

Goff is just a decent fantasy option. He won’t win your league, but he certainly won’t lose it. He’s safe, and he's a fringe starter. You can take him late and have a solid backup, or a competent starter. He finished at the 10 spot last year, but he was riddled with inconsistencies to start the year. The Lions’ offense just got a new receiving back in Jahmyr Gibbs. Goff can finish even higher than last year because he didn’t get all the opportunities he should have for passing touchdowns. Goalline touchdowns took away a lot of opportunity for Goff, meaning that he has a higher ceiling if things work out his way. 

Daniel Jones should probably deserve a spot or two higher on this list. He finished as a top 10 quarterback, and he has Darren Waller now to actually carry the receiving game. The only reason I don’t have him higher is because his stats were inflated by his 36 point game, and he had more than a few inconsistent less than 10 point performances. I think the guys ahead are better options, but Jones has the starting QB upside. However, I wouldn’t draft him as such. 

I don’t think that Geno is going to live up to his miracle comeback from last year, but I do think he will be a solid starter, just not one with much upside, which is why I would never consider drafting him as a starter. He does have a solid floor though. He was incredible last year, and the situation hasn’t changed much. It is just incredibly rare to see people of his age and situation come back and still produce at the level he did last year. I wouldn’t bet on it happening again. 

Carr finished in this spot last year, but I like his situation more this year with the New Orleans Saints. With Kamara out, they will pass more, and they are already set to be pass heavy with Thomas back and Olave breaking out. Even when Kamara comes back, he still gets a lot of receiving work. Carr only averaged 15 points per game last year, but I definitely can see growth in this new system. 

Russell Wilson was one of the biggest busts last year, and certainly the biggest bust at the position, and he is not back. The good news is that he basically hit his floor due to the awful play calling and injuries that hampered his offense. With Payton as head coach, I see reason to believe that he could rebound, but not to an extent that he is a reliable starter. I would fade him and only draft him in superflex leagues. 

This is the only massive surprise of this list, and I am ready to put myself on the Sam Howell hill this year. Howell scored 19 points in his only game last season. The training camp reports have been spectacular, with him showing off his arm talent and getting praise from Eric Bieniemy who doesn’t give it out easily. In his two preseason games, he was 9/12 for 77 yards and a touchdown, and 19/25 for 188 yards and 2 passing touchdowns. He also averaged 2 rushes per game, despite only participating in a drive or two. He showed his poise and rushing upside. He has QB ratings over 100 in both games. He’s a player that you have no way of knowing where he is going to land in terms of the range of outcomes, but I think he has really high upside, and you don’t even need to draft him. 

Stafford has fallen, and the Rams are in shambles. I have 2 words: Cooper - Kupp. As long as he can feed the ball to Kupp, he can put up stats, and that is all I have to say. 

****As this was uploaded Kupp was placed on the IR. Don't expect much out of Stafford until Kupp is back. 

Anthony Richardson is up here because of his rushing upside. He will be running the ball all the time, and this upside is what puts him at the top of all rookie quarterbacks. Taylor will be out for 4 games, which will help Richardson all the more. He may struggle earlier as a rookie, but he could be a high upside stash. 

Pickett only averaged 12 points per game last year, but as we saw with Trevor Lawrence, second year players can make big jumps. Of course, Pickett is not Lawrence, and his situation is not as good. He is a fringe, competent option to be on your team, but the upside and potential we saw in a couple of those games is enough to put him at this spot. 

Murray will be out to start the season, and that is why he is back here. Murray is obviously much more talented and younger than many of the guys on this list. It is a make or break for Murray as the Cardinals may go for Caleb Williams if he can’t produce. The Cardinals are willing to run all their players into the ground, because they have nothing to lose. As a result, Kyler has this spot. It wasn’t so long ago that people thought he had #1 upside because of his rushing stats. I mean, he averaged 19 points per game when he played last season. I certainly think that he is able to reach those heights, so he is a strong playoff stash. You just can’t draft him as your starter, because if you do, you might not even make it to the playoffs to win it. 

Love is his team’s starter, and he is young with upside. I don’t like him, I think his situation is poor, and the Packers will run the ball more than you think. There is a reason that even the great Aaron Rodgers couldn’t put life into this Packers team. The only reason I like Love is because of his rushing upside. 

Bryce Young is just a pure upside pick. The Panthers situation isn’t great, but Young is extremely talented, and he has the potential to make it work. He is just an upside pick, and I don’t really have much reason to say that he will falter nor succeed. His situation is better than that of Stroud, and he has Adam Theilin, Chark, and Jonathan Mingo.