Swish Tribune Analyst, Ryan Lashin, Gives An In Depth Analysis On The Top 25 Running Backs

We have no way of knowing what Bijan will accomplish, but we see rookie running backs breakout all of the time. He is comparable to Barkley in his capability and has an even better situation. His offensive line is better than those Giants and their offense has weapons in London and Pitts to lead sustained drives and get him red zone touches. He is one of the best running back prospects we have seen in a long time and already showed flashes in his first preseason start.

I love Nick Chubb, and he still has an amazing situation. Chubb has an even better situation than last year by having Watson for the full year and taking over Hunt’s receiving workload. He had the 3rd most rushing attempts last year, and with the receiving game, that is just the cherry on top. Sports betting sites actually have him as the favorite to take home the rushing yards title, so why is he being drafted below so many other backs? Draft him above his ADP in PPR, and 100% do so in standard.

Barkley is a high upside candidate who has everything we want in a potential #1 overall player. He is still young and he is still the team’s workhorse and receiving threat (even with Waller). He had the 4th most carries of any back despite missing a game. He was also active in the receiving game as he was in his rookie year. He is now over a year removed from his serious injuries, so the risk has been minimized. If you got him for cheap during his contract dispute, then you hit the jackpot. He is better than Ekeler, and worth way more than his ADP. Get him late in the first or in the middle if you want.

Ekeler is the second best receiving back there is, and in PPR, he has shown that he can be a consistent monster. He had 8 20 point games, and a lot of it is due to Ekeler’s red zone receptions. He only had 1 game in which he had less than 10 points, and that was the final game of the season when they didn’t need him to win. I do not prefer him over the guys I have at a higher spot, however he still is a great option, and if he somehow falls into the middle of the round, he is a great pick.

We have all been waiting for Henry’s eventual decline, but it seems to never come. He will still get his massive workload, leading the lead in carries once more last year. Unfortunately, his offensive situation might be worse than it was last year. We have seen the king’s ceiling, and he is not exceeding it this year. Luckily, his ADP is in the second round, and I think that Henry is a very safe option barring injury. I would certainly take him in the second round to form an amazing running back duo with a late first round running back like Barkely or Chubb. With a duo like that, you are set up for a successful year.

Pollard is finally going to get the opportunity and respect he deserves. Deuce Vaugn isn’t a concern in taking his workload, and we have seen how efficient Pollard is when given the chance. He averaged 5.2 yards per game. He also had 8 red zone targets. I don’t know what this Cowboys offense is going to look like without Kellen Moore. It may be less pass heavy, which would help, or it could sway the other way. He is ready to be the lead back, and with a second round ADP, you can secure yourself a first round level running back.

If Taylor’s situation improves, he could very well be higher. As of right now, he is a risk. He might hold out or still be injured, and I can’t help you if you draft him and either one is the case. However, I believed in Taylor in his rookie year and the following year. I think he is one of the best backs in the league, and the Colts are going to need him to run the ball a lot in a Derrick Henry esk role. Taylor was plagued by injury last year, but we saw his potential the year before. He is still young, and we all know that young 2nd, 3rd year backs are usually the best bets to be fantasy winners. Don’t be deceived by his average points per game last year, being only 9 in standard. If you take out the games where he left early due to injury, he averaged 13 per game, which was good enough for the 8th average per game. He also averaged more yards per carry than Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkely, and more of the top running back options. If you can get him in the second round or later, consider it a steal.

*As this was uploaded Taylor requested a trade, which greatly improves his value. 

Jacobs is due for regression, and will not retain his workload. He was in a better position last year, because it was a contract year, and teams like to overwork players who need to prove their worth and who they won’t mind if they get worn down. Jacobs is now disgruntled and has Jimmy G at the helm. He was perfectly healthy last year, but after a tiring season that may not last. But hey, we would say that about Derek Henry, and he would prove us wrong. I don’t like to draft based on injury, and Jacobs does have room to grow in the passing game. I would wait until the 3rd to draft him since we have seen his ceiling, but you can take him in the mid second if you think he can sustain his previous success.

I love Gibbs this year as a younger and better situated Aaron Jones. His receiving ability makes him a PPR stud, and there is a reason he was drafted so high. That is because he is going to have a large role in the offense. The only reason that I don’t think he has #1 option potential is because David Montomgery will take the goal line carries. Gibbs is not a safe pick, and people are delusional thinking he is. But, I love to take a risk with my 3rd-5th round picks, because they have extremely high upside. Gibbs might be worth a first rounder by the end of the year, and that is why he is worth a 3rd round pick. Just make sure to have a good backup plan like Mattison, Swift, or Akers in one of the later rounds to save yourself if something goes wrong.

Stevenson will definitely lose some of his touches to Elliot, but he still seems primed to have a strong fantasy season. He was the #7 in PPR despite not having strong performances in the first two games when Harris was the lead back. Elliot’s contract does bring some concern as it isn’t the usual backup salary, but the signs point to him still having the workload. He averaged 5 yards per carry. He only had 6 red zone targets, so there is room to improve there. I would draft him in the 3rd round as a RB 2 and high upside RB 1 like he was last year. You can even take him in the late second round if you really want him.

I have taken Jones in at least one of my leagues for the last 3 years, because he is a beast. He always performs well, but unfortunately has been getting less and less opportunities. It is frustrating to see Dillon get carries when Jones is just better, but now he has a worse situation than ever before. The Packers are full of young receivers who will take targets, they retained Dillon, and Jordan Love just isn’t good. Sorry not sorry. He was the running back number 10 last year, but was riddled with inconsistencies. He had 5.3 yards per attempt and 72 targets. I see a decline, and he seems to be a worse Jahmyr Gibbs this year. I think his ADP is fair, but I like Gibbs more.

Mixon is not a great pick at his ADP. I don’t like him this year, because his role in his own team keeps getting more and more reduced. He only averaged 3.9 yards per attempt. If you take away his 55 point game, his average per game tumbles down out of the top 15 towards the top 20. He would have had the same average points per game as Najee Harris, who we all thought was a bust. His upside is limited in this pass first offense as they gave him very few receiving opportunities in the red zone, limiting his receiving touchdown chances. He is good, but I like Gibbs and even Harris more at that ADP. His ADP is fair though. Feel free to take him if you want.

Najee let me down last year, but his offensive line is better, and I am not worried about Warren. Harris was playing injured, but he began to thrive towards the end of the season. He finished as the #14, and that is his floor barring injury, even though he was playing injured. He is tough, he has receiving upside, and he is being drafted at his floor. He is a very solid 3rd round pick, but I don’t know how comfortable I would be with him as your #1 back. He is one of the better 3rd round picks if you want your running back, and his ADP is fair.

His ADP is just too rich. He is above better options like Najee and Gibbs. He was the running back #24 last year in average points per game. The reason why I don’t like the pick is because his situation didn’t change much. The Jaguars got better and will sustain more drives, but Ridley will also take opportunities with him. The Jaguars also like Tank Bigsby, and I am worried he will take some carries, but not too many to change my mind on where he should be drafted. He was inconsistent, and there were no excuses last year. His ADP is too high, and he is not my choice in the 3rd round. Feel free to take him in the 4th as a high upside steal once he gets more red zone action, but be wary of taking him in the early 3rd.

It pains me that Cook signed with the Jets, because the Jets did not need him. Hall will be healthy this season and is a more capable player at this point. I know that and so do the Jets, which is why Hall will still have running back #1 upside. He averaged 6 yards per carry, which was 3rd amongst starting backs with the two in front of him not even being in the top 50. He was 7th in average points per game, and his situation is even better this season as the Jets will have sustained drives. Early in the season, Cook may have a bigger workload as the Jets won’t want to overwork him with him coming off of a tough injury. However, you should avoid drafting him until the early 4th round and trade for him when it looks like he is underperforming in the early part of the season. I love Breece Hall, but Dalvin is no backup, and for a player to succeed, they need the opportunity.

Sanders is very underrated. The Panthers gave him a $10 million signing bonus, which shows that they want him as a franchise player. The Panthers are lacking weapons on offense, and someone will need to alleviate Young at times. Sanders will be that guy. He still finished as a top 15 back with 5 yards per carry. It all points to him having what it takes to continue as a top 20 guy. He is being drafted as the running back #19. His ADP is fair and he still has upside. His situation has pros and cons compared to last year, and I think that I would feel comfortable expecting similar results as last year. A top 20 option, but not any higher than top 10.

Akers always wins leagues at the end of the season. He has always been inconsistent, and maybe this is the year that changes. The Rams are in decline, and aside from Kupp, that passing attack is not viable. Akers is the running back for the Rams, and he will be a bell cow. It may not seem like it, but I think he will get many carries. He is now healthy, and I love stashing him in leagues as a backup running back for trade value, or for the end of the season. I suggest if you don’t draft him in the 5th or 6th, to trade for him after he has another underwhelming start to the season before putting on a show as I win the championship.

Pierce was expected to breakout last season, and I believed in it, and he rewarded me. His offense is barren, but still better than before. I am not too concerned with Singlatery taking his carries as many people are. He is a better standard option than PPR, but he is still a viable option. His ADP, however, is laughable. I may trade for Pierce, but I certainly won’t be drafting him. The 3rd round is too high, and if you can’t get a 3rd round ADP player in the 4th, then do not draft a running back until later. That is a round for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Pierce is overrated and not worth his ADP. His ranking is accurate, however. A maybe top 20 running back, with not much upside or downside.

Walker missed games and didn’t even get opportunities until later in the season, yet he was still top 20. His injuries are not a problem, but drafting Zach Charbonnet is. He will take carries, because why else would they draft him? To sit on the bench? He will still be the lead back and proved what he could do last year. I like him more so in standard leagues, but you can still take him in PPR. He has top 20 upside for sure, maybe even top 10 if Charbonnet somehow is out of the picture. I like him more than Pierce in round 4 because of his upside, but again, round 4 isn’t the best value round for the position. The 5th round is a steal, but unlikely. A trade is a good option. His ADP is fair, and I don’t see why you shouldn’t take him if you absolutely need a 4th round back.

Mattison has always been good when given the chance. In that way he reminds me of Pollard and Kareem Hunt. Pollard is finally getting his chance and so is Mattison. Pollard has proven himself more though as Zeke was underperforming while Cook wasn’t. I like Mattison as a 5th, 6th round luxury pick if you can draft a high upside player. He could very well break out. He is only 25 years old, which is the age that we have seen all of these running backs breakout. His 6th round ADP is totally fair.

I think that Swift will rebound from last year. He has shown that he can be explosive, and he is just as good as Sanders. He will be in a scheme that gave Sanders 250 carries, and any player with those opportunities is a good bet. You can even possibly get him in the 7th round. He only got 99 attempts in 14 games, but averaged 5.5 yards per carry. I like him as a cheap player. He may even pass as a RB #2. He is severely undervalued, and it will show.

Kamara is out for 3 games. After that, he will be the Saints’ running back. He has always been great. Last year he missed 2 games, and he was still top 20. Picking him is like picking Hopkins last year. A proven guy who you know will perform, but he will miss some games. The important thing is to draft him as a backup and make it to the playoffs, so that you are stacked and in prime position to make that final push.

Pierce was expected to breakout last season, and I believed in it, and he rewarded me. His offense is barren, but still better than before. I am not too concerned with Singlatery taking his carries as many people are. He is a better standard option than PPR, but he is still a viable option. His ADP, however, is laughable. I may trade for Pierce, but I certainly won’t be drafting him. The 3rd round is too high, and if you can’t get a 3rd round ADP player in the 4th, then do not draft a running back until later. That is a round for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Pierce is overrated and not worth his ADP. His ranking is accurate, however. A maybe top 20 running back, with not much upside or downside.

Surprise! I am rounding out my top 25, not with Rachaad White or Javonte Williams. In just 13 games, he finished top 20 in points. No one is talking about him. He was 11th in points per game. He is the only real resource on the Cardinals, and if Murray isn’t playing, do you actually think they will pass the ball? He is not in a contract year, but will still be run down because he is getting older. They won’t hesitate to give him carries. I really like Conner, and he is being slept on.

I don’t like him. His situation is bad, and I don’t think he is that good. He is on the level of Pacheco being that he is a backup, who should not be taken in a round where you still need starters. Even then, if you have the luxury, at his ADP you can get quite a few of the players I have ranked higher. He just isn’t worth it, and everyone seems to disagree. So let them take him, and you’ll be better off. Or you can be a baller, take him, and then deal him for more in return. That is what I would do.

Williams is coming off full ligament tears, and the reports don’t suggest he’s at full health like Breece is. There is a reason people are drafting Samaje Perine, and it is because Javonte is a massive injury risk. He is due for a decline, and I don’t see the top 25 upside. Maybe top 30, which is why he just missed the cut, but not as a starting back on your team.

I think he will be really good and have a Jaamal Williams type role on the team. Maybe, he will prove me wrong and be in the top 25 or better. I believe that he can. However, he is not his team’s starter, and will have to rely on goal line carries. He is a risk, but his ADP is really good. I think that you should draft him. This list is a prediction of the top 25 players, but based on ADP values, there are people in this list I said not to draft because of their ADP, and Montgomery’s is really fortunate, which is why I put him as a mention, just so you can see this.

I love Dalvin. He was such a strong player for me for many years, but he made a bad decision not signing with the Dolphins. He will not get the carries to be top 25. Maybe at the beginning of the year, it will look like he will, but then Hall will become dominant, and Cook won’t be worth it. I see people starting him on their team, and good luck to them.